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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."